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Prices, tariffs and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, analysts say.
December 1, 2025
By: Lianna Albrizio
Associate Editor
Black Friday cast a few clouds over the year’s biggest shopping event.
Early data from RetailNext reveals in-store traffic on Black Friday dipped 3.6% year-over-year. The reason? Shoppers are delaying big purchases and prioritizing essentials, analysts say.
Initial data from the leading in-store traffic analytics provider said in-store foot traffic took a 5.3% year-over-year plunge across Black Friday and Saturday. For health and beauty, in-store traffic saw decreases of 2.1% and 9.6%, respectively, on both days.
Analysts say the numbers reflect smarter shoppers who are spending with precision and prioritizing value.
“Black Friday 2025 didn’t kill the holiday; it changed how shoppers approached it,” said Joe Shasteen, global head of advanced analytics at RetailNext. “Foot traffic was down 3.6% on Friday and 8.6% on Saturday, but that wasn’t disinterest, it was intention. Shoppers showed they’re done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy. Prices, tariffs and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, and they responded by turning Black Friday into a value calculation.”
One of the clearest signals, analysts say, is the 3.6% drop on Black Friday, which analysts say is meaningfully better than the 6.2% decline seen from Sunday through Wednesday (Nov. 23–Nov. 26). The figures depict that even in a cautious year, shoppers continue to wait for major promotional events and more selective about when those events are worth the trip.
“Despite the declines, Black Friday again delivered the highest in-store traffic of any day this year, reaffirming its role as the anchor of the holiday shopping season, but the weekend’s performance was shaped more by real-world factors than waning interest,” added Shasteen. “Consumers are still willing to shop, they’re just demanding proof it’s worth leaving the house.”
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